If Ted Gaines wins the Senate nomination, who will run for his Assembly seat?

Ted Gaines may not win his bid for California’s 1st Senate seat. But then again, in the unpredictable game of politics, maybe he will thanks mostly to Barbara Alby throwing her hat in the ring thus creating a 3-way race between her, Gaines and Niello, which creates a situation where votes that would have gone to the top contender (Niello, in this case) go to bottom candidate (Alby) and the second candidate (Gaines) floats to the top.



(Side note: Gaines is only considered a 2nd contender because Niello has enormous name ID – an enviable quality in politics. Otherwise, Gaines is a solid candidate with a respectable legislative history).



If Gaines wins the senate bid, that means he’ll resign his State Assembly post creating a special election in spring of 2011 to fill his seat.

Who’s likely to run for his Assembly seat?


Allard:  Yes

On the Democrat side (not that Democrats win in this bastion of Conservatism) Dennis Campanile is a good bet given that he has gone after the seat in 2008 and will again in November. What about former Air Force pilot Charlie Brown, a contestant in the 4th Congressional District race in 2006 and 2008 against John Doolittle and Tom McClintock, respectively? That’s not going to happen; he was tapped by the Obama Administration last year to work with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.


Uhler:  No



On the Republican side, insiders say John Allard, city councilman for Roseville, is in and the other likely candidate, Placer County Supervisor Kirk Uhler, is out. But don’t hold your breath; there’s always a chance that another local Republican leader – like Auburn Councilor Mike Holmes who challenged Doolittle in 2006 – or a political neophyte could give it a go.





But Allard is a solid candidate, with many years of civic and political experience (including serving for more than 10 years as chief of staff to former Assemblyman Tim Leslie), and the owner of a successful small business.



Holmes:  Maybe



The problem is, Allard’s current term on Roseville City Council expires in 2012. So guess what? Yep, another special election will be in order.

And the political beat goes on.